There is a certain mystery about the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame. Unlike its more famed contemporaries, like the Baseball Hall of Fame or the Pro Football Hall of Fame — for the record, I think of them as peers and friends, as if their anthropomorphized selves get together to play cards every month, like dogs playing poker — the Basketball Hall is shrouded in secrecy. I would argue that is its defining trait.
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Every year, a secret cabal of voters gets together, a puff of white smoke emerges from atop the Massachusetts shopping mall the Hall sits in and a Hall of Fame class is named. There is as much transparency to the whole process as there is to the deli meats in the Subway located near the Hall in that same mall.
But that is also a part of its intrigue. There is no clear guideline. To paraphrase Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, who may have played on the highest court in the land, you know a Hall of Famer when you see it.
Take Chauncey Billups, Hall-eligible since 2018. He made five All-Star teams and three All-NBA teams, cracked the top five on the MVP ballot once, won a championship as the Pistons’ best player and took home the NBA Finals MVP award. He has a strong case — all but two eligible Finals MVPs are in the Hall of Fame — and yet he’s on the outside looking in.
Now take Tim Hardaway Sr.; also a five-time All-Star, made five All-NBA teams (including first-team once), cracked the top five on the MVP ballot once and never made it to the NBA Finals. He was inducted in 2022.
One has more team success, the other has better stats. On the whole, the resumes aren’t all that different. The Basketball Hall of Fame, it’s a mysterious thing.
In recent years, The Athletic has attempted to demystify the whole process. Rob Peterson, our hard-charging basketball historian, was in control in each of the past two years. This year, he has bequeathed this project to me.
I don’t take this lightly. Even though I believe we should abolish all halls of fame, I also respect the situation we’re living under. If there is a Basketball Hall of Fame, then we have to make sense of who goes in there.
There are some great guideposts. I call these four metrics the PETE — the Peterson Enshrinement Totems Extrapolated. If you’re an MVP, a Finals MVP, a scoring champ or in the top 50 all time in scoring — congrats, you’re very likely headed to the Hall.
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It’s in the rest of the gray area where we must wade. This year, we’re presented with what might be the most interesting Hall of Fame argument currently going in the NBA, a discussion that will only get harder with every season he’s still in the league.
DeMar DeRozan is a fascinating case. He has made just three All-NBA teams and never a first team. He has had a bit of a career renaissance in Chicago, making the All-Star team in both years with the franchise and garnering MVP votes for the 2021-22 season. He is a talented, multi-level scorer who has also become an adroit passer and facilitator as he’s aged.
But, and here is the big but here, the big-time bona fides are just not there. Again, he hasn’t stacked up All-NBA teams. He has never finished top five in MVP voting. He’s a six-time All-Star, but it’s hard to say he’s ever been thought of as one of the league’s truly elite players.
It would be hard to make a strong Hall of Fame case for him except for one big point in his favor. DeRozan now sits 39th on the NBA’s all-time scoring list, right behind Chris Paul and Stephen Curry. Everyone in the top 47 in scoring has or will make the Hall.
It’s not hard to see DeRozan, who turned 34 on Aug. 7, keep climbing the list. He scored 1,816 points last season; if he does that again, he could finish as high as 30th at the end of this upcoming season depending on how many points Paul and Curry score.
He also has averaged 20 or more points per game in 10 seasons; just 34 others have done that in NBA history, and they are all in the Hall or likely headed there.
Yet, it’s those players just inside and on the outside who make the best comps for DeRozan. Mitch Richmond, 47th on the scoring list, with six All-Star Games, five All-NBA teams, an All-Star Game MVP and a 21.0 points per game average, is in the Hall. Tom Chambers, No. 49 on the all-time scoring list, four-time All-Star, two-time All-NBA team member, two-time finisher in the top-10 in MVP voting, 1987 All-Star Game MVP and owner of a lifetime 18.1 ppg average, is out. Walt Davis, six times an All-Star, two times on an All-NBA team, 18.9 career scoring average, 54th on the all-time scoring list, is out.
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DeRozan (No. 133), by Basketball Reference’s excellent Hall of Fame Probability metric, is a lot closer to Davis (139) and even Joe Johnson (126), than Richmond (109). But he’ll place so high on the scoring list that voters will have to deviate far from precedent to keep him out.
This may ultimately be reflective of a problem voters will have in the future, too. As scoring keeps going up in the NBA, it’s possible that points scored will no longer be as valuable a credential in a Hall of Fame case. It will have been devalued, much like passing yards for a quarterback in the NFL in this age of the big passing boom. DeRozan could just be the first test case.
Active locks
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Stephen Curry, Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, Joel Embiid, Draymond Green, James Harden, Dwight Howard, LeBron James, Nikola Jokić, Kawhi Leonard, Damian Lillard, Chris Paul, Klay Thompson, Russell Westbrook
Embiid ascended into the ranks of the Hall after his MVP season in 2022-23, though he still stands on an understandably creaky pedestal. He’s played just 394 career games, but he’s already a two-time scoring champion, made five All-NBA teams and finished in the top two of MVP voting three times. While one more great season under his belt should help ease any concerns, he has already had a far more dominant career than Derrick Rose.
With two MVPs already on his mantle, Jokić was likely headed to the Hall already before last season despite just seven years in the league. That’s undeniable proof that he’s one of the all-time greats. Then, he put together a season in which he arguably should have won MVP but didn’t, so, instead, he won a ring and took home Finals MVP. Lock it up. Jokić is on his way to Springfield.
James just set the all-time scoring record. He’s widely regarded as one of the best players ever; probably one of the two best. Just appreciate him as long as he’s still playing.
Antetokounmpo has two MVPs, a Finals MVP and a Defensive Player of the Year award; there’s no argument here. Curry just had his third-highest scoring season ever at 34; he’s got four rings, two regular-season MVPs, a Finals MVP award, has hit more 3s than anyone in NBA history and is sixth in career true shooting percentage.
Davis just put together a mostly dominant postseason run, but it will be interesting to see how his career gets remembered. He’s made four All-NBA teams, first team each time, but with new rules mandating players appear in at least 65 games to qualify going forward, it could hurt his resume. He hasn’t played 65 games in a season since 2017-18. But he’s already made the NBA’s Top 75 list, finished top five in MVP voting twice, made four All-Defensive teams and won an NBA title, an Olympic gold medal and All-Star Game MVP.
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Durant is 518 points away from moving into 10th all time in points scored and has enough accolades to fill a shopping cart. Green has won Defensive Player of the Year, made eight All-Defensive teams and two All-NBA teams and is a key player on four NBA championship teams. Thompson has won four rings and made two All-NBA teams; if he continues his scoring pace from the past two seasons, he could also squeak his career scoring average over 20 points per game. Paul has had a well-traveled career, but, as a six-time steals leader and five-time assists leader, along with 11 All-NBA appearances, the hardest question might just be which team to associate him with when he makes the Hall.
Harden might be the first Hall of Famer to demand a trade from the institution, but that’s only because he’ll get in first. He’s a three-time scoring champion and 25th all time in points, not to mention the MVP award on his mantle and seven All-NBA selections (six on first team). Howard‘s late-career swoon makes it easy to overlook how great he was in prime, when he was a three-time Defensive Player of the Year, an eight-time All-NBA team selection and had a credible case to take home the 2011 MVP award.
Leonard is a two-time Finals MVP, an All-Star Game MVP and has already made five All-NBA teams, which makes up for a lack of career counting stats. Only Leonard, James and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar have won Finals MVP with multiple teams. Lillard made the 75th Anniversary team, which clinched his election to the Hall, though having the 11th-highest all-time points per game average helps. Westbrook is a two-time scoring champ, three-time assists champ, an MVP and has four seasons where he averaged a triple-double. His 198 triple-doubles are the most in NBA history.
Retired Locks
Vince Carter, Carmelo Anthony
Anthony could have just walked off that couch in his retirement video and straight into the Hall of Fame. We’ll see him there one day. Right now, he has scored the ninth-most points in NBA history. He is a member of the 75th anniversary team, has three Olympic gold medals, has 336 points in those Olympics (second only to Kevin Durant) and widely respected as one of the best players of his era.
Carter’s case is a little less sure. He only made two All-NBA teams in his career and never the first team. He has eight All-Star appearances, though. But he is currently 20th on the NBA’s all-time scoring list, and that should be enough to get him in. He also averaged 20 or more points per game in 10 straight seasons, which is a great indicator of being Hall-worthy. His immense popularity and goodwill may bridge the gap between the shortfalls on his resume. He also won the Rookie of the Year award and an Olympic gold medal, which should help.
Retired, in the mix
LaMarcus Aldridge, Chauncey Billups
If Hardaway got in, then Aldridge has a strong case. Both have made five All-NBA teams (though Hardaway made first team once). Aldridge made more All-Star teams and has the higher lifetime scoring average and scored more points.
We already discussed Billups and Hardaway above, but Billups should have a credible case as a Finals MVP. He also won gold in the 2010 FIBA World Championship. He even ranks ahead of Hardaway, and others, on BBRHOFP.
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Active, near-locks
Jimmy Butler, DeMar DeRozan, Luka , Paul George, Rudy Gobert, Kyrie Irving
The legend of Jimmy Butler continued to grow this spring, and so did his Hall of Fame case. He has made five All-NBA teams and five All-Defensive teams. No one has more Eastern Conference finals MVP awards than he does. He has been the best player on two NBA Finals teams. His BBRHOFP ranks just 105th — the numbers have always had trouble accounting for Butler’s greatness — but that’s ahead of Hall of Famers such as Wes Unseld, Yao Ming and Dennis Johnson. It’s hard to say Butler isn’t one of the best players of his generation, with the winning that accompanies that kind of accolade. It’s close, but Butler has done enough at this point to get in.
Dončić is just 24, but he has already been named First Team All-NBA four times and has finished top five in MVP voting twice. Not to mention his international success, which includes an EuroBasket gold medal with Slovenia, along with Liga ACB, EuroLeague and EuroLeague Final Four MVP awards. If his career ended right now, he’d likely go in as basketball’s analog to Gale Sayers.
George has made an All-NBA team five times, including first team in 2019, and an All-Defensive team four times. He has a top-three MVP finish. He should clear the bar.
Gobert will likely be a controversial inclusion, just as he has struggled for universal acceptance during his career. But he has won Defensive Player of the Year three times and made All-Defensive first team six times and All-NBA four times. He’s also won the blocks and the rebounding titles and helped France earn silver at the 2020 Olympics. It’s hard to argue with those credentials. The BBRHOFP will try. Gobert is 154th, right behind Gilbert Arenas but just ahead of Manu Ginóbili. If France can win a gold at the 2024 Olympics, maybe that can clinch Gobert’s case.
Irving is right on the cusp of the Hall and needs a little more to get in. He is one of the NBA’s most skilled players — now and of any era — a virtuoso scorer and ballhandler. He hit arguably the most important shot in NBA history and won a title with the Cavaliers. But he is also light on the credentials to make the Hall. He has made just three All-NBA teams — never First Team — but won the 2014 All-Star Game MVP award. He ranks 81st in BBRHOFP, in the same range as inductee-in-waiting Pau Gasol and George. The advanced Hall metrics like Irving. But he has been a lightning rod for controversy over the last half-decade, which has led to him being off the court because of various problems. He missed most of the 2021-22 season because he refused to get vaccinated to comply with New York City’s COVID-19 laws, and he received an eight-game suspension last season for sharing a link to anti-Semitic movie. How much voters will care about that remains to be seen. His talent is undeniable, and in the end, that should likely get him in.
Active, in the mix
Andre Iguodala, Kevin Love, Kyle Lowry, Jayson Tatum
Tatum is just 25 but has already made three All-NBA teams, four All-Star teams, won the 2022 Eastern Conference Finals MVP and the 2023 All-Star Game MVP and made a Finals. He averaged 30.1 points per game last season. Only one player has ever averaged 30-plus in a season and failed to make the Hall if eligible (World B. Free).
The BBRHOFP gives Iguodala just a 12.7 percent chance of making the Hall but he has a lot of things working for him. He has the 2015 NBA Finals MVP on his resume; Cedric Maxwell and Billups are the only eligible Finals MVPs not to make the Hall. He won four NBA titles. He has been one of the best wing defensive players of his time, buttressed by two appearances on the All-Defensive team and the 20th most steals in NBA history. He likely will get some points for being a key part of a dynastic Warriors team — Iguodala was arguably the fifth-most important player on that team and there is no Death Lineup without him. The case against him is obvious: just one All-Star appearance and no All-NBA teams. It’s hard to say someone who did not average double-digit points-per-game in any of his last 10 NBA seasons should make the Hall. But maybe Iguodala could be an exception considering the totality of his achievements. There are players, though not many, with a lower BBRHOFP who have made the Hall. Iguodala will either need a welcoming set of voters or precedent to get in. Maxwell’s best credentials are his Finals MVP award and being a two-time champ; Iguodala can offer more than that. Bobby Jones made it with a lower BBRHOFP, but he also made an All-ABA team and 11 All-Defensive teams and five All-Star teams, along with a Sixth Man of the Year award. It also took him 33 years after his last NBA season to get in.
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Lowry is a classic edge case. He has made just one All-NBA team, though he is a six-time All-Star. He’s an NBA champion and won Olympic gold in 2016. His BBRHOFP has him 92nd all-time, just a spot above the un-enshrined Billups, and he would be the second-highest ranked person on that list to miss the Hall if he doesn’t get in. But that also means there is some relative precedent to leave him out.
Love has a nearly identical resume to Lowry, and he has a decent change to get in. The BBRHOFP gives him a 73.5 percent likelihood. He’s a five-time All-Star and two-time All-NBA team honoree, the 2011 Most Improved Player, a rebounding champ and an NBA champion. He’s still a little light on the big measurements of individual greatness, but you can see Love making it, especially since he also won gold at the 2010 World Cup and 2012 Olympics with Team USA. Maybe he and Lowry can each add one more Finals appearance this upcoming season in Miami, perhaps next to Butler, Bam and Lillard.
Active, could see it happening
Blake Griffin, Al Horford, Rajon Rondo
Griffin is a five-time All-NBA honoree and six-time All-Star with a top-3 MVP voting finish, but his career basically broke down after his age-29 season. Rondo and Horford have each made just one All-NBA team, but Rondo also has four All-Defensive team appearances. He’s also a three-time assists leader and a steals champion. That along with two NBA titles gives him a 60.6 percent chance to make the Hall according to BBRHOFP. Horford is a five-time All-Star and he won two national championships at Florida.
Active, Hall of Fame track
Bam Adebayo, Devin Booker, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaren Jackson Jr., Donovan Mitchell, Ja Morant, Karl-Anthony Towns, Trae Young
This is a new category concocted just this year that is exactly what it sounds like. The players here are still early in their careers but have already put together some credentials that have put them on track to one day get enshrined in Springfield. But it is early yet, and you know what happens when you make assumptions — it makes an Albert Butts out of you.
Booker, 26, is one of the league’s best young stars. Really, his Hall of Fame case is just a matter of time, but he’s not in yet. He finished fourth in MVP voting in 2022 and made first team All-NBA that season, but those are the only all-league honors for him. He’s got the 24th-highest points-per-game average in NBA history and every non-active player in the top-40 is in or will be in. For now, though, Booker’s got a worse BBRHOFP than DeMarcus Cousins. Again, this all makes sense.
Mitchell, 26, has made four All-Star appearances but just made his first All-NBA team in his first season in Cleveland, along with a six-place finish in MVP voting. He’s got the eighth-highest career playoffs scoring average. Gilgeous-Alexander, 25, also just made his first All-NBA team and on the first team to boot, while averaging 31.4 points-per-game — that’s rarified air. Young, 24, is a two-time All-Star and made one All-NBA team in five seasons while averaging 25.5 points and 9.3 assists per game, which are the 14th and ninth-highest career averages in NBA history right now.
Adebayo, 26, is two-time All-Star and four-time All-Defensive team honoree, and he has already made two NBA Finals in six seasons. Jackson won Defensive Player of the Year this past season and made his first All-Star team. He’s also a two-time blocks leader and made two All-Defensive teams.
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Morant, 23, is obviously a difficult case right now. He’s going to serve a 25-game suspension to start the 2023-24 season, which means he won’t make an All-NBA team next season for sure. But he has already made one, won Most Improved Player, won Rookie of the Year and is a two-time All-Star. He’s included here because he is on track to make the Hall. Of the 41 other players who have made an All-NBA team in their age-22 season or earlier since 1960, 30 are in the Hall or definitely headed there. Another 10 serve as examples of how success at a young age don’t always lead to a Hall of Fame career. Karl-Anthony Towns, still just 27, made an All-NBA team in his age-22 season but has made only other All-NBA team so far — as well as being a three-time All-Star — and is right on the edge of being on a Hall-of-Fame track.
The Derrick Rose/Max Zaslofsky Exception: Derrick Rose
As my colleague Rob Peterson likes to write, Max Zaslofsky is the only scoring champ never to make the Hall. He is the exception to the rule, just as Rose will be. Rose will likely go down for a while as the only NBA MVP to miss the Hall. At least Zaslofsky also made four All-NBA/BAA teams; Rose only made one the year he won MVP. Rose was obviously a towering talent while he was healthy, but he just wasn’t healthy long enough before injuries curtailed his career.
(Illustration: John Bradford / The Athletic; Photos: Getty Images / Maddie Meyer, Vaughn Ridley)
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